St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins Pick & Prediction – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Zebby Matthews - Twins

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on August 25, 2024, at Target Field, the stakes are high for both teams in this Interleague matchup. The Twins, currently holding a record of 72-57, are having a strong season, while the Cardinals sit at 64-65, reflecting an average performance. The Twins are projected to start Zebby Matthews, who has had a mixed year with a 1-1 record and a solid ERA of 3.60. Meanwhile, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, boasting a better win-loss record of 8-7 and an impressive ERA of 3.39.

The Twins' offense ranks as the 6th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to generate runs consistently. They have been particularly potent lately, with Ryan Jeffers leading the charge over the past week, hitting .545 with two home runs and five RBIs in just four games. This offensive firepower is crucial as they look to capitalize on Fedde's tendency to allow hits, as he projects to give up 5.4 hits today.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are struggling to find their rhythm at the plate, ranking 17th overall in MLB. Luken Baker has been their standout hitter recently, but with only one home run in the last week, the Cardinals will need more contributions to keep pace with the Twins' potent lineup.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets suggest a close contest. The Twins' moneyline is set at -130, reflecting their higher implied win probability of 54%. Given their superior offensive ranking and recent performances, the Twins appear to be in a favorable position to secure the win against the Cardinals today.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his last game started, Erick Fedde struggled when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to post 2 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.3) implies that Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year with his 27.0 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

St. Louis Cardinals bats as a unit grade out 27th- in the game for power this year when judging by their 6.9% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Daniel Matthews has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Max Kepler is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Edouard Julien has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games at home (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 31 away games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.75 Units / 33% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.69 vs Minnesota Twins 4.84

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