St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins Best Bet – 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

As the St. Louis Cardinals visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins on August 24, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings. The Twins, currently sitting at 71-57, are having a solid season, while the Cardinals are at an even 64-64, marking them as an average team. This game marks the second in their interleague series, and both teams are eager to gain momentum. In their previous game, the Cardinals came away with a convincing 6-1 win over Minnesota and will look for a repeat performance here.

The matchup features two strong right-handed pitchers: Pablo Lopez for the Twins and Sonny Gray for the Cardinals. Lopez has had a solid campaign, starting 25 games with an 11-8 record and a 4.47 ERA. While his ERA is average, his 3.43 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might improve as the season progresses. On the other hand, Gray holds a slightly better profile with a 3.91 ERA and a 2.77 xFIP, reflecting a more favorable performance this year.

Offensively, the Twins rank as the 6th best team in MLB, showcasing a robust lineup that boasts the 7th best batting average and the 8th most home runs. This offensive strength could prove crucial against a Cardinals team that ranks 17th overall and struggles with power, sitting at 22nd in home runs. The projections indicate that the Twins should score around 4.01 runs today, while the Cardinals have a low implied total of just 3.49 runs, reinforcing the Twins' status as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140.

With Ryan Jeffers leading the way for the Twins, having recorded 6 hits and 5 RBIs over the last week, Minnesota looks poised to continue their winning ways against a Cardinals team that may struggle to keep pace.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Recording 17.7 outs per outing this year on average, Sonny Gray places him the 90th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Lars Nootbaar has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 98.3-mph over the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 6.9% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #27 squad in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez has relied on his four-seamer 6% more often this year (40.5%) than he did last season (34.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Matt Wallner's true offensive skill to be a .321, providing some evidence that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .086 deviation between that figure and his actual .407 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Edouard Julien has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Carlos Santana has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.05 Units / 45% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.29 vs Minnesota Twins 4.22

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