St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals Pick & Prediction – 8/9/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Details

• Date: August 9, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Michael Lorenzen - Royals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of a competitive stretch. The Royals currently sit at 64-52, enjoying a solid season, while the Cardinals hold a record of 59-57, placing them in the middle of the pack. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will look to gain an early advantage.

In their last game, the Royals faced off against the Boston Red Sox, where they showcased their offensive prowess, contributing to their 12th-ranked batting unit in MLB. Meanwhile, the Cardinals also played recently, but they haven’t been able to find consistent success, particularly with their 22nd-ranked home run production, which has hindered their scoring potential.

On the mound, the Royals will send Michael Lorenzen to the hill, who has had a mixed season with a 5-6 record and a solid ERA of 3.69. However, his 4.97 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, and the projections indicate he could allow an average of 2.8 earned runs today. Facing him will be Miles Mikolas, who has struggled with an ERA of 5.12 this year. Although Mikolas has been deemed unlucky with a 4.23 xFIP, he still projects to allow 3.1 earned runs on average.

The Royals' offense has been more effective overall, ranking 12th in MLB, particularly excelling in their ability to avoid strikeouts, which could pose a challenge for Mikolas, a low-strikeout pitcher. With Kansas City’s strong home-field advantage and a favorable matchup against a struggling Cardinals lineup, the Royals are positioned as the slight favorites in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas has gone to his curveball 8.1% less often this year (11.9%) than he did last year (20%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nolan Gorman has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (34.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen is a pitch-to-contact type (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The 6.7% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals grades them out as the #28 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Over his last 3 outings, Michael Lorenzen has seen a big drop off in his fastball velocity: from 93.3 mph over the entire season to 92.3 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Kyle Isbel's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 78.7-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 46 games at home (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+5.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.99 vs Kansas City Royals 4.93

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