St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 6/5/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park. This interleague matchup will be the third game in the series between these two teams. The Astros, with a record of 28-34, are having a below-average season, while the Cardinals, with a record of 28-31, are also struggling.

The Astros will have Ronel Blanco on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has started 10 games this year. Blanco has an impressive 5-1 win/loss record and a stellar ERA of 2.44. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could see a decline in performance going forward.

Opposing Blanco will be Miles Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher for the Cardinals. Mikolas has started 12 games this year, with a 3-6 win/loss record and an ERA of 5.54. His 3.93 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

The Astros have a strong offense, ranking as the 6th best in MLB this season. They are particularly adept at hitting home runs, ranking 9th in the league. On the other hand, the Cardinals have struggled offensively, ranking 21st overall. However, they excel in hitting home runs, ranking 5th in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cardinals have the 4th best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Astros rank 15th. This could give the Cardinals an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Astros are the favorites to win with a moneyline of -165 and an implied win probability of 60%. The Cardinals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 40%.

Overall, the Astros have the advantage in this game with their strong offense and Blanco's impressive performance this season. However, Mikolas' potential for improvement and the Cardinals' power-hitting ability could make this an interesting matchup. With both teams having below-average seasons, it will be crucial for them to secure a win to gain some momentum.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Matt Carpenter's quickness has dropped off this season. His 25.32 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.75 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alex Bregman has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .230 BA is a fair amount lower than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Houston Astros projected lineup profiles as the 4th-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.10 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.49 vs Houston Astros 4.71

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