St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

As the Colorado Rockies and St. Louis Cardinals gear up for their matchup on September 26, 2024, at Coors Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Rockies, with a dismal 60-98 record, have had a season to forget, while the Cardinals sit at 81-77, hovering around the .500 mark. This game marks the third in their series, with the Cardinals looking to capitalize against a struggling Rockies squad.

On the mound, the Rockies will send left-hander Kyle Freeland, whose season has been less than stellar. Freeland's 5-8 record and 4.95 ERA reflect his challenges, though his 4.39 xFIP suggests some misfortune in his performance. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipates Freeland to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 3.4 earned runs and 6.7 hits, which could spell trouble against the Cardinals’ lineup.

For the Cardinals, righty Kyle Gibson will take the hill. With an 8-8 record and a 4.13 ERA, Gibson has managed to maintain an above-average showing, albeit with some luck, as indicated by his 4.82 xERA. Projections suggest he might struggle, with 3.3 earned runs and 6.1 hits expected over 5.0 innings.

Offensively, both teams present middle-of-the-pack firepower. The Rockies rank 19th in overall offense, with a stronger showing in home runs at 16th. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 20th in offense, with a notable 13th in batting average but lagging at 23rd in homers. The Rockies' Charlie Blackmon and the Cardinals' Ivan Herrera have been bright spots recently, boasting impressive OPS figures over the past week.

With a game total set at 10.5 runs, the betting markets anticipate a high-scoring affair. The Cardinals are slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, hinting at a tight contest. Given the Rockies' implied team total of 5.13 runs, there could be value in backing them to outperform expectations if Freeland can capitalize on his underlying metrics and the offense steps up.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Tallying 92.4 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Kyle Gibson places him the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Michael Siani will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals ranks them as the #27 squad in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Considering the 0.37 discrepancy between Kyle Freeland's 4.95 ERA and his 4.58 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the majors this year and ought to perform better in the future.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Ezequiel Tovar has experienced some positive variance this year. His .320 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .281.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to score the 2nd-most runs (5.95 on average) of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 60 games at home (+11.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 away games (+7.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Gibson has hit the Strikeouts Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+11.00 Units / 78% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6.17 vs Colorado Rockies 5.95

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