St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies Pick & Prediction – 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Austin Gomber - Rockies

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 25, 2024, at Coors Field in the second game of their series. The Rockies are enduring a tough season, posting a 60-97 record, while the Cardinals manage a middling 80-77 record, indicating average performance throughout the season.

Charlie Blackmon has been a standout for Colorado over the last week, batting .357 with an impressive 1.571 OPS, driving in four runs and smashing two home runs in just four games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' Ivan Herrera has been even hotter at the plate, boasting a .500 batting average and 1.372 OPS over his last four games.

On the mound, the Rockies will rely on Austin Gomber, who has struggled this season, holding a 5-11 record with a 4.67 ERA. His advanced stats suggest luck has been on his side, as his xERA shows a potential regression. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees Gomber allowing 3.3 earned runs over an average of 5.0 innings, which does not bode well for Colorado.

In contrast, Erick Fedde takes the hill for the Cardinals. Although his 8-9 record might not seem impressive, his 3.38 ERA indicates strong performances. Projections indicate Fedde might also face some luck regression, with a predicted 4.23 xFIP, but his ability to navigate games slightly better than Gomber is clear.

Both teams field average offenses and bullpens, with the Rockies ranked 19th and the Cardinals 18th in Power Rankings. The Cardinals hold a slight edge with a 52% projected win probability, slightly above their 54% implied probability. This matchup leans toward an offensive showcase, with the game total set at a high 10.5 runs, suggesting plenty of action at Coors Field. Can the Cardinals capitalize on their slight edge, or will the Rockies' bats erupt in their hitter-friendly park?

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde's high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (68.6% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

When it comes to his home runs, Pedro Pages has experienced some positive variance this year. His 17.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.9.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the St. Louis Cardinals are expected to record the most runs (6 on average) of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Austin Gomber's 89.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 4th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Cave has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .298 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .336 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 67 games at home (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.65 Units / 58% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 6 vs Colorado Rockies 5.41

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