St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Pick & Prediction – 8/12/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 12, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On August 12, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Great American Ball Park in what is the first game of their series. Both teams are currently in the National League Central, with the Cardinals sitting at 60-58, a mark that reflects an average season, while the Reds stand at 57-61, indicating a below-average year. The stakes are high, as both teams seek to improve their standings in a competitive division.

The Reds will send Andrew Abbott to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 9-9 record and a respectable 3.70 ERA. However, his 4.93 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, hinting at potential struggles ahead. Abbott's average projection of 5.1 innings pitched and 3.1 earned runs allowed today could spell trouble against a Cardinals lineup that ranks 17th in MLB offensively.

On the other side, Sonny Gray will take the hill for the Cardinals. With an impressive 11-6 record and a solid 3.65 ERA, Gray has been one of the most reliable pitchers this season, ranked 22nd among starting pitchers. The projections indicate he may allow only 2.4 earned runs today, which could put the Cardinals in a favorable position to win.

The Reds have struggled offensively, ranking 19th overall but 27th in team batting average. However, Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot, leading the Reds' offense with a .387 batting average over the last week. Conversely, the Cardinals have been inconsistent, especially in the power department, ranking 22nd in home runs.

With the betting markets favoring the Cardinals slightly at -130, this matchup appears close. The Reds will need a strong performance from Abbott to turn the tide in their favor, especially with their high strikeout rate facing a high-strikeout pitcher like Gray. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for an offensive showdown.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 59.4% of the time, placing in the 78th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Batters such as Tommy Pham with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andrew Abbott who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott was on point in his previous outing and posted 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds (24.8% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-most strikeout-prone set of hitters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 105 games (+8.20 Units / 6% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+8.10 Units / 21% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.34 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.52

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