St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Best Bet – 8/14/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: August 14, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Emilio Pagan - Reds

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 14, 2024, they come off a solid victory where they triumphed 4-1 against the same Cardinals just the day before. Both teams find themselves in a tight spot, with the Reds sitting at 59-61 and the Cardinals slightly ahead at 60-60. This matchup is crucial for both teams, as they look to gain momentum in the competitive National League Central.

On the mound, the Reds will start Emilio Pagan, who has had a mixed season, with a 2-3 record and an ERA of 4.22. While Pagan's advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky this year, he is projected to pitch only 1.0 innings, which raises concerns about his effectiveness. In contrast, the Cardinals will counter with Kyle Gibson, who has a more favorable 7-4 record and a solid ERA of 3.99. However, Gibson's xERA indicates he may have benefited from some luck, suggesting he could regress in this outing.

Offensively, the Reds rank 18th overall in MLB, but they excel in stolen bases, leading the league. Elly De La Cruz has been their standout player this season, boasting a .842 OPS. On the other hand, the Cardinals rank 19th overall, with Alec Burleson as their best hitter, hitting .275 this season.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Cardinals slightly, giving them a 51% chance of winning. However, the Reds are projected to score an impressive average of 5.16 runs in this game, which could tilt the odds in their favor if their offense can capitalize against Gibson. With the game total set high at 9.5 runs, fans can expect an exciting matchup as both teams vie for a critical win.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.2-mph decrease from last season's 91.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Cincinnati's 2nd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 6.8% Barrel% of the St. Louis Cardinals makes them the #28 squad in the game this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Emilio Pagan will "start" for Cincinnati Reds in today's matchup but will fill the role of an opener and may not last more than a couple innings.

• Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 44 games at home (+9.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.30 Units / 11% ROI)
• Nolan Arenado has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 40 games (+8.90 Units / 18% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.58 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.21

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.