St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Prediction For 8/4/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 4, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 4, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a tightly contested series. The Cubs, with a record of 54-59, are having a below-average season, while the Cardinals sit at 57-54, performing at an average level. With the Cubs struggling to find consistent offensive production—ranking 23rd in MLB for team batting average and home runs—they'll need to capitalize on any opportunities against a Cardinals pitching staff that includes Miles Mikolas, who has had an up-and-down season.

Justin Steele is projected to take the mound for the Cubs. Despite a 2-5 record, Steele's 3.38 ERA ranks him as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, suggesting he’s been effective despite his win-loss numbers. Steele's ability to keep the earned runs down will be crucial, especially given his projections of allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.7 hits on average today, both of which are concerning. The Cubs will hope Steele can pitch deep into the game as he averages 5.6 innings.

For the Cardinals, Miles Mikolas has struggled with a 4.99 ERA, which ranks him among the worst pitchers in the league. His projected numbers indicate he may allow 3.3 earned runs and 6.1 hits, which could prove advantageous for a Cubs offense that desperately needs a breakout performance.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs have a favorable outlook for this matchup, projecting them to score an impressive 5.56 runs on average. In contrast, the Cardinals are expected to muster 4.86 runs. With the Cubs entering as betting favorites and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, they’ll look to leverage their home-field advantage as they strive to turn their season around against division rivals.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's curveball usage has fallen by 7.9% from last year to this one (20% to 12.1%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

In terms of his home runs, Alec Burleson has been lucky this year. His 27.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Justin Steele's 91.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 14th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Michael Busch has a ton of pop (81st percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Miles Mikolas struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for Busch.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christian Bethancourt, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.65 Units / 26% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Singles Under in 30 of his last 34 games (+24.30 Units / 48% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.47 vs Chicago Cubs 5.24

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