St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Pick For 8/2/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Javier Assad - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on August 2, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs, currently sitting at 53-58, are having a below-average season, while the Cardinals hold a record of 56-53, placing them in the middle of the pack. In their last meeting on August 1, the Cubs edged out the Cardinals with a close 5-4 victory, showcasing the competitive nature of this rivalry.

Javier Assad is projected to start for the Cubs, bringing a mixed bag of results to the mound. Although his ERA stands at a solid 3.23, advanced metrics suggest he may have benefitted from good fortune this season, as his xFIP is 4.53. Assad's recent outing on July 28 was uneventful, allowing three earned runs over six innings. In contrast, Erick Fedde, slated to take the hill for the Cardinals, boasts a 3.11 ERA and has performed better overall, ranking 61st among MLB starting pitchers. Fedde struggled in his last start, only lasting four innings while allowing three earned runs.

On the offensive side, the Cubs rank 22nd in MLB, while the Cardinals sit in 17th place. However, the projections favor the Cubs slightly, estimating they will score 4.14 runs compared to the Cardinals' 4.26 runs. Despite the Cubs’ poor offensive rankings, Ian Happ remains a standout, leading the team with a 0.777 OPS, while Seiya Suzuki has been heating up, recording a 0.370 batting average over the last week.

With both teams' bullpens showcasing contrasting strengths—the Cubs ranked 27th and the Cardinals at 13th—this matchup presents an intriguing dynamic. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a low-scoring affair. As both teams vie for a crucial win, fans can look forward to another exciting chapter in this storied rivalry.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Erick Fedde has averaged 93.6 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Javier Assad has relied on his non-fastballs 5.3% less often this season (44.8%) than he did last year (50.1%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Isaac Paredes has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 82.2-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Christian Bethancourt).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+14.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.17 vs Chicago Cubs 3.94

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