St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Pick For 6/16/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals square off on June 16, 2024, at Wrigley Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League Central matchup. Both teams have struggled to find consistency this season, with the Cubs standing at 34-37 and the Cardinals at 34-35. Despite their records, this game carries significant weight as divisional matchups often do.

In their previous game on June 15, the Cubs triumphed over the Cardinals with a convincing 5-1 victory. The Cubs were heavy favorites, reflected in their closing Moneyline price of -170 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were substantial underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +155 and a 38% implied win probability.

On the mound, the Cubs will start Jameson Taillon, who has had a strong year with a 3.09 ERA despite peripheral stats suggesting some luck. His 4.37 xFIP indicates he might be due for a regression. Taillon has posted a respectable 3-2 record over 10 starts but faces a projection of 3.0 earned runs and 5.9 hits allowed over an average of 5.3 innings today—numbers that are far from encouraging.

The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas, whose season has been a mixed bag. Mikolas carries a 4.85 ERA, but his 3.93 xFIP suggests he's been unlucky and could improve. He holds a 4-6 record over 14 starts and is projected to allow 3.4 earned runs and 6.4 hits over 5.2 innings. His strong performance in his last outing, pitching seven scoreless innings with six strikeouts, offers the Cardinals some hope.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Cubs rank 21st in MLB in offense, with a particularly poor 26th ranking in team batting average but a decent 11th in stolen bases. Christopher Morel has been their standout hitter with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs. David Bote has also been hot, batting .667 over the last week.

The Cardinals' offense ranks 20th, with a mediocre 19th in team batting average and a weak 26th in stolen bases. Nolan Gorman leads the team with 15 home runs. Ivan Herrera, hitting .500 over the past week, has been their best recent performer.

One key to this game could be the bullpens. The Cubs' bullpen ranks 21st, while the Cardinals boast the 4th best bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This advantage could be critical in a close game.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cubs a 55% win probability, aligning closely with their implied win probability and suggesting a balanced contest ahead. With both teams projected to score over five runs, this game could easily turn into a high-scoring affair.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense profiles as the 2nd-best out of every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Jameson Taillon is expected to record an average of 4.1 strikeouts in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This year, there has been a decline in Miguel Amaya's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.18 ft/sec last year to 24.96 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• Michael Busch has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games at home (+7.05 Units / 38% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.44 vs Chicago Cubs 5.72

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