St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 4/12/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 12, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Steven Matz - Cardinals
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cardinals 1.5 -195, D-Backs -1.5 165
• Money Line: Cardinals 100, D-Backs -120
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 48%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 52%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 46.55%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 53.45%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

In a National League matchup set to take place on April 12, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. Both teams have similar records this season, with the Diamondbacks and Cardinals both sitting at 6-7. However, their performances so far are considered below average.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, while the Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Steven Matz. As per our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pfaadt is ranked 126 out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating he is below average. On the other hand, Matz is ranked 84, suggesting he is above average.

Pfaadt has started two games this year, with a win-loss record of 1-0. Although his ERA is 5.06, his 2.57 xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Matz has also started two games, with a win-loss record of 1-0. His ERA is an impressive 1.74, but his 4.47 xFIP indicates he may have been lucky and could perform worse in the future.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank 5th best in MLB this season, demonstrating their underlying talent. They also rank 11th in team batting average, 19th in home runs, and an impressive 3rd in stolen bases. Conversely, the Cardinals rank 24th in MLB overall, but they do have a good ranking in team batting average (7th) and team home runs (5th), despite a low ranking in stolen bases (23rd).

With the Diamondbacks having a higher projected win probability (52%) compared to the Cardinals (48%), the odds suggest it will be a close game. The implied team total for the Diamondbacks is 4.61 runs, while the Cardinals have an implied team total of 4.39 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Steven Matz has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brandon Pfaadt.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's slider usage has spiked by 5.8% from last season to this one (27% to 32.8%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Over the past two weeks, Blaze Alexander has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a -6° angle.

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

The 6.4% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks grades them out as the #28 team in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 73 of their last 136 games (+12.90 Units / 9% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 46 away games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals 4.79 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.89

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.