St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks Pick & Prediction – 4/13/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Overview

• Date: April 13, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
• Run Line: Cardinals -1.5 140, D-Backs 1.5 -160
• Money Line: Cardinals -110, D-Backs -110
• Total (Over/Under):9.5 -110

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 50%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 50%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 48.98%
• Arizona Diamondbacks - 51.02%

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Preview & Prediction

On April 13, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks will be the home team for this National League matchup. Both teams are currently having below-average seasons, with identical records of 6-7.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has had a tough start to the season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nelson is ranked as the #221 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His win/loss record stands at 0-2, with an ERA of 8.22. However, his 5.04 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Cardinals will counter with right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson, who has also struggled this season. Gibson's win/loss record is 1-1, with an ERA of 6.23. His 3.95 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

The Diamondbacks offense has been performing well this season, ranking as the #5 best in MLB. They have a solid team batting average, ranking #11 in the league, and are known for their base-stealing abilities, ranking #3 in stolen bases. On the other hand, the Cardinals offense has struggled, ranking as the #24 best in MLB. However, they have a strong team batting average, ranking #7 in the league, and are among the top teams in home runs.

In terms of bullpens, the Cardinals have the advantage, ranking as the #2 best bullpen in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the #20 best.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%, indicating that this could be a close game. The Diamondbacks have a high implied team total of 4.75 runs, while the Cardinals also have a high implied team total of 4.75 runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Among every team playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Nolan Gorman has big-time power (97th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ryne Nelson has a pitch-to-contact profile (7th percentile K%) — great news for Gorman.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.6-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit grade out 28th- in the league for power since the start of last season when assessing with their 6.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cardinals vs D-Backs Prediction: Cardinals 5.2 - D-Backs 5.04

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