Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Odds – 5/24/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 24, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated matchup on May 24, 2024, the Washington Nationals will host the Seattle Mariners at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a disappointing record of 21-27 this season, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Mariners, who boast an above-average season with a record of 27-24.

The Nationals will send left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore to the mound, while the Mariners will counter with right-handed pitcher George Kirby. Gore, ranked as the 63rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a win/loss record of 2-4 and an impressive ERA of 3.30 this season. Kirby, on the other hand, is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher and has a win/loss record of 4-4 with an ERA of 3.99. Interestingly, Kirby's peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward.

The Nationals offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 26th best in MLB. However, they do have a strong batting average, ranking 6th in the league. The Mariners offense, ranked 20th in MLB, has been fairly average in terms of overall performance. Both teams have had their share of struggles, particularly in the home run department, where they rank near the bottom of the league.

In their last game, the Nationals suffered a close 3-2 loss to the Twins. Despite being underdogs, they had a closing Moneyline price of +105, indicating a 47% chance of winning. The Mariners, in their last game, were shut out 5-0 by the Yankees. As underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +130, they had a 42% chance of winning.

The projections for today's game indicate a close matchup, with THE BAT X giving the Nationals a 46% win probability and the Mariners a 54% win probability. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. Gore, a high-strikeout pitcher, will face a Mariners offense that ranks second in strikeouts in MLB, giving him an advantage. Kirby, a high-flyball pitcher, will face a Nationals offense that lacks power, ranking second to last in home runs, which could work in his favor.

With the Mariners coming in as the betting favorites, it will be interesting to see if the Nationals can defy the odds and come out on top. However, the projections indicate a close game, so anything can happen on the field.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Washington Nationals have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage against George Kirby in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's 95.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.5-mph rise from last season's 94.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jacob Young's speed has declined this year. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.41 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Joey Gallo pulls a lot of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 39 games (+6.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games at home (+5.55 Units / 56% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.61 vs Washington Nationals 3.97

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