Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 4/20/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

In a matchup between two American League foes, the Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Seattle Mariners to Rogers Centre on April 20, 2025. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Blue Jays sitting at 12-9 and the Mariners at 11-10. The stakes are high for both as they strive to improve their standings, particularly as both clubs look to build momentum going into the season's next phase.

The Blue Jays are projected to send Easton Lucas to the mound. Lucas, who carries a 2-1 record and an ERA of 4.70, has had an underwhelming start to the season, ranking as the 262nd best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his last appearance, he struggled, projecting to average only 4.7 innings pitched and allowing 2.9 earned runs today, which could spell trouble for Toronto if he cannot find his rhythm.

Conversely, the Mariners will counter with Luis Castillo, who has been more reliable this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.22. Ranking 83rd among MLB starters, Castillo is projected to average 5.9 innings today. His ability to keep the ball on the ground could mitigate the Blue Jays' issues with power, as they rank 28th in home runs this season with just 12 long balls.

Offensively, Toronto boasts the 13th best offense overall and ranks 7th in batting average, but their lack of power could be a concern against a groundball pitcher like Castillo. Seattle's lineup, while struggling with batting average (26th), showcases power, ranking 7th in home runs and leading the league in stolen bases, giving them versatility on the base paths.

Given the projections and recent trends, Toronto might find themselves in a tighter spot than expected, but with the right adjustments, they could turn the tide against a struggling Mariners bullpen ranked 28th in MLB. The Game Total sits at a moderate 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup as both teams vie for important victories.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has used his non-fastballs 7.6% less often this year (29%) than he did last year (36.6%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the weak infield defense of Toronto (#29-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

J.P. Crawford hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The Toronto Blue Jays outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.19, Toronto Blue Jays 4.87

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Easton Lucas - Blue Jays

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