Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick – 4/18/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners on April 18, 2025, both teams look to gain momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Blue Jays enter the game with an 11-8 record, while the Mariners sit at 10-9, making this a critical early-season clash as both teams aim to secure their positions in the American League standings. Notably, the Mariners recently showcased their offensive prowess, winning their last game against another opponent 11-7, while the Blue Jays were victorious 3-1 in their previous outing on April 16.

On the mound, Bowden Francis is set to start for Toronto, and while he has a respectable 3.71 ERA this season, he ranks as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced stats, indicating he may have had some good fortune so far. Francis has struggled with walks, giving him a 10.1 BB% this year, which could be a target for a Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in the league in drawing walks.

In contrast, Bryan Woo will take the hill for Seattle, boasting an impressive 2.84 ERA and a Power Rankings placement of 33rd among MLB starters. Woo has shown remarkable control, walking only 1 batter in his last start, where he pitched 7 strong innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 7. His tendency to induce fly balls might work to his advantage against a Blue Jays offense currently ranked 25th in home runs.

Despite being rated the 12th best bullpen in MLB, the Blue Jays' lineup has shown inconsistencies, especially in power hitting. This matchup could be impacted by the fact that the Mariners lead the league in home runs, pointing to a possible advantage if they can capitalize on Francis's flyball tendencies. Given these dynamics, the projections indicate a close contest, making for an intriguing battle at Rogers Centre.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cal Raleigh has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 22.4% seasonal rate to 50% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis has notched a 4.61 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the things a pitcher can most influence) since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Andres Gimenez is likely to have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.5% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+12.20 Units / 44% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.07, Toronto Blue Jays 4.34

• Date: April 18, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays

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