Seattle Mariners VS Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 04/09/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Overview

• Date: April 9, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
• Umpire:
• Run Line: Mariners 1.5 -215, Blue Jays -1.5 185
• Money Line: Mariners -110, Blue Jays -110
• Total (Over/Under):8 -110

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 50%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 49.23%
• Toronto Blue Jays - 50.77%

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays Game Preview & Prediction

On April 9, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. As the home team, the Blue Jays will look to improve their record of 5-6 this season, while the struggling Mariners aim to turn their 4-7 season around. This American League matchup promises an exciting game between two teams with different levels of performance so far.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt, who has had a challenging start to the season. With an ERA of 7.71, Bassitt has struggled on the mound. However, his 5.12 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Mariners will send right-handed pitcher George Kirby to the mound. Kirby has shown promise with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 5.23. His 4.59 xFIP indicates that he has been slightly unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the Blue Jays have had an average season, ranking 23rd in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks 5th, indicating a strong hitting lineup. Meanwhile, the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB. With their team batting average at 24th, they face a tough challenge against the Blue Jays' pitching.

Both teams have different bullpen strengths, with the Blue Jays ranking 15th and the Mariners ranking 28th in MLB. This could play a significant role in the outcome of the game, especially if the starting pitchers don't go deep into the game.

Looking at the overall picture, the Blue Jays have the advantage in this matchup. However, the Mariners have the potential to turn things around with their strong starting pitcher, George Kirby. It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and whether the Mariners can overcome their struggles.

According to the current odds, the Blue Jays are favored to win with an implied win probability of 51%, while the Mariners have a 49% chance of pulling off an upset. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average-scoring game.

As we await the game, keep an eye on the Blue Jays' best hitter, who has been a key contributor to their recent success. In their last seven games, Justin Turner has been on fire, recording five hits with a batting average of .357 and an impressive OPS of 1.071. For the Mariners, Luis Urias has been their standout player, hitting .333 with 1 home run and an outstanding OPS of 1.289 in the past week.

With Chris Bassitt's low-strikeout rate facing the Mariners' high-strikeout offense, Bassitt may have an advantage. However, the Mariners' offense will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes from the struggling Blue Jays pitcher.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that George Kirby will tally an average of 17.4 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Jorge Polanco has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Mitch Haniger hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Kevin Kiermaier has been cold lately, limping his way to a .137 wOBA in the last 7 days.

• Recent struggles may mean the player is not seeing the ball well, is playing hurt, or has something going on that will hamper him in the short-term.

The Toronto Blue Jays (19.5 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 153 games (+10.94 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners 4.07 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.88

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