Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/23/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 23, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 150, Rangers 1.5 -170
• Money Line: Mariners -110, Rangers -110
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 50%
• Texas Rangers - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 48.2%
• Texas Rangers - 51.8%

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field on April 23, 2024. The Rangers, with a season record of 12-11, are having an above-average season, while the Mariners hold an average record of 11-11. Dane Dunning is projected to start for the Rangers, a right-handed pitcher who has shown promise this season. Logan Gilbert, also a right-handed pitcher, is projected to take the mound for the Mariners.

The Rangers' offense has been strong this season, ranking 11th best in MLB. They have excelled in team batting average, ranking second, and team home runs, ranking fifth. However, their stolen bases ranking sits at a disappointing 25th. On the other hand, the Mariners' offense has struggled, ranking 22nd overall. They have particularly struggled with team batting average, ranking 24th, and stolen bases, ranking 18th.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Dane Dunning is considered the 160th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Logan Gilbert ranks higher at 72nd. Dunning has started four games this season and holds a record of 2-1 with a respectable ERA of 3.91. However, his 4.85 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances. Gilbert, with four starts and a record of 1-0, has been impressive with an ERA of 2.33. His 3.02 xFIP indicates potential regression but still showcases his overall effectiveness.

Dunning is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.8 batters, and surrendering 4.9 hits and 2.1 walks. Gilbert, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.1 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.4 walks. These projections suggest an evenly-matched duel on the mound.

In terms of team rankings, the Rangers have a slight advantage over the Mariners in both offense and bullpen. However, these rankings should be taken as estimates of underlying talent and not solely based on year-to-date performance. The Rangers' bullpen ranks 25th, while the Mariners sit at 23rd.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal chance of winning the game, with a moneyline set at -110 for each. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Rangers have a high implied team total of 4.50 runs, as do the Mariners.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all the teams playing today, the 5th-worst outfield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ty France is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Dane Dunning will concede an average of 2.1 singles in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 81 of their last 151 games (+17.83 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 46 away games (+10.54 Units / 17% ROI)
• Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction: Mariners 4.86 - Rangers 4.76

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