Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds, Picks – 4/24/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 24, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Jon Gray - Rangers
• Run Line: Mariners 1.5 -195, Rangers -1.5 165
• Money Line: Mariners 100, Rangers -120
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 48%
• Texas Rangers - 52%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 41.39%
• Texas Rangers - 58.61%

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

The Texas Rangers are set to host the Seattle Mariners in an American League West matchup at Globe Life Field on April 24, 2024. The Rangers, with a record of 12-12 this season, are having an average season so far. On the other hand, the Mariners have a slightly better record of 12-11, indicating an above-average season for them.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray, who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gray has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 3.15, which is considered great. However, his 3.70 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may regress in future performances.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller, who is considered below average according to our Power Rankings. Miller has started four games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an excellent ERA of 1.85. However, his 3.55 xFIP suggests that he may not be able to sustain this level of performance going forward.

In terms of offense, the Rangers have been performing well this season, ranking as the 10th best team in the MLB. They excel in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th, respectively. However, their ranking in stolen bases is quite low at 25th. On the other hand, the Mariners have a lower-ranked offense, sitting at 22nd in the MLB. They rank 24th in team batting average and 13th in home runs, with an average ranking in stolen bases at 18th.

From a pitching perspective, the Rangers bullpen is ranked 26th, while the Mariners bullpen is ranked 23rd. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in the later innings of the game.

Considering the pitchers' strengths and the offensive capabilities of both teams, Gray, a high-strikeout pitcher, may have an advantage against the Mariners, who have the second most strikeouts in the MLB. On the other hand, Miller, a high-flyball pitcher, may face difficulties against the powerful Rangers offense, which has hit 165 home runs this season, ranking 5th in the MLB.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seamer rate has decreased by 16.8% from last year to this one (58.5% to 41.7%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

J.P. Crawford may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Jon Gray's 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.6-mph decline from last season's 95.1-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Marcus Semien is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Texas Rangers bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 84 of their last 156 games (+18.78 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 34 away games (+10.87 Units / 28% ROI)

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction: Mariners 4.47 - Rangers 5.07

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