Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 6/28/2025

On June 28, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Seattle Mariners in the second game of their series at Globe Life Field. Both teams are in the American League West, with the Rangers holding a record of 40-42, while the Mariners sit above average at 42-39. This matchup is crucial for both sides, especially for the Rangers, who are not currently in contention for a playoff spot.

In their previous game, Seattle emerged victorious, further solidifying their position in the standings. The Mariners' offense has been a strong point this season, ranking 9th overall in MLB, while the Rangers struggle at 27th, highlighting a significant disparity in offensive production.

Expected to take the mound for Texas is Kumar Rocker, who has had a challenging season thus far. Rocker's 3-4 record comes with a troubling 6.68 ERA, although his 3.83 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and may improve. He projects to pitch only 4.9 innings with an average of 2.2 earned runs and a concerning 4.5 hits allowed per outing. On the other hand, Seattle will counter with Bryan Woo, who boasts a solid 7-4 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA, ranking him as the 22nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Woo’s projections are equally strong, with expectations of 6.0 innings pitched and only 2.4 earned runs allowed.

While the Rangers’ lineup has shown flashes of potential, they rank poorly in batting and home runs, which could spell trouble against Woo's low-walk, high-strikeout style. Overall, the Mariners have the edge, with betting lines reflecting their status as favorites at -140, implying a total of 4.27 runs. The Rangers, currently at +120, face an uphill battle with a projected team total of only 3.73 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Out of all SPs, Bryan Woo's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 79th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Cal Raleigh has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last season's 94.9-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Because groundball batters hold a sizeable advantage over flyball pitchers, Kumar Rocker and his 45.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today's outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Marcus Semien tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Texas's 15.7° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the highest in the majors this year: #1 overall.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 81 games (+20.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 37% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.18, Texas Rangers 3.62

• Date: June 28, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Kumar Rocker - Rangers

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