Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Pick – 6/29/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Seattle Mariners on June 29, 2025, they find themselves in a tight battle in the American League West. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Rangers holding a record of 41-42 and the Mariners at 42-40. This matchup is particularly intriguing as both teams are looking to gain momentum after the Rangers edged out the Mariners 3-2 in their last game.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Jack Leiter, who has struggled this season. With a 4-5 record and a 4.55 ERA, Leiter ranks as the 279th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has been among the least effective pitchers this year. His recent outing on June 22 saw him allow 3 earned runs over 4 innings, underscoring his inconsistency. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.0 innings today, likely giving up 2.7 earned runs, but his tendency to allow 4.7 hits and 2.0 walks could be problematic against a potent Mariners lineup.

Luis Castillo counters for Seattle, boasting a solid 4-5 record with a 3.69 ERA, which is considered good. Although Castillo's last start was a rough one, where he allowed 5 earned runs, he remains a reliable option. The projections indicate he will pitch about 6.0 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which should keep the Mariners competitive.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 28th in MLB for runs scored and 29th in batting average, making it difficult for them to capitalize on scoring opportunities. In contrast, the Mariners rank 8th in runs and home runs, giving them a significant edge in this matchup. With the Mariners having a high implied team total of 4.40 runs compared to the Rangers' 4.10, the betting markets suggest a close contest, but the Mariners appear to have the upper hand in this series.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's high utilization percentage of his fastball (66.6% this year) is likely dampening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Benjamin Williamson is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Texas (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In today's matchup, Luke Raley is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (75th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jonah Heim has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 78 games (+19.95 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.80 Units / 28% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.85, Texas Rangers 4.18

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

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