Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/25/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 25, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
• Run Line: Mariners -1.5 130, Rangers 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Mariners -120, Rangers 100
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 52%
• Texas Rangers - 48%

Projected Win %:

• Seattle Mariners - 47.74%
• Texas Rangers - 52.26%

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

In an American League West matchup, the Texas Rangers will host the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field on April 25, 2024. The Rangers, with a record of 13-12, are having an above-average season, while the Mariners, with a record of 12-12, are performing at an average level.

The Rangers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has had a challenging season so far. In his four starts, Heaney has yet to secure a win, and his ERA stands at 6.35, which is considered to be below average. However, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Mariners are expected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, who has been a standout performer this season. Castillo has a record of 1-4 with an ERA of 4.40, which is considered average. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and is expected to improve in future outings.

The Rangers have a powerful offense, ranking 10th best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 2nd in the league, and team home runs, ranking 5th. However, their stolen bases rank 25th, indicating a weakness in that aspect. The Mariners, on the other hand, have a lower-ranked offense, sitting at 22nd in MLB. They struggle with team batting average, ranking 24th, but have an average ranking of 13th in team home runs.

In terms of pitching, the Rangers bullpen is considered one of the weakest in MLB, ranking 27th. Conversely, the Mariners bullpen ranks 19th, indicating an average performance. These rankings are based on our advanced-stat Power Rankings, which are an estimate of underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance.

The projections show that Heaney is expected to pitch around 4.9 innings on average, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, and giving up 4.6 hits and 1.8 walks. Castillo, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, and surrendering 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks. These projections indicate an average performance from Castillo and below-average performance from Heaney.

Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the Mariners may have an advantage in this matchup. Heaney's low strikeout rate may not be as effective against the Mariners' high-strikeout offense, while Castillo's high-flyball tendency could be problematic against the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks 5th in team home runs.

The Game Total for this game is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game. The Rangers are listed as the underdogs with a +100 moneyline, implying a 48% chance of winning, while the Mariners are favored with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% chance of winning.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Luis Castillo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 5.2 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Mitch Garver has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mitch Haniger hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Andrew Heaney's change-up rate has fallen by 5.2% from last season to this one (17.8% to 12.6%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 150 games (+18.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+10.89 Units / 23% ROI)

Mariners vs Rangers Prediction: Mariners 4.92 - Rangers 4.85

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