Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/25/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 25, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Zack Littell - Rays

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On June 25, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Seattle Mariners at Tropicana Field in the second game of their series. Currently, the Rays are hovering around average territory with a 39-40 record, while the Mariners are performing well at 45-36. Despite these records, the game may prove pivotal as both teams jockey for better positioning as the season progresses.

The pitching matchup features Zack Littell for the Rays and Luis Castillo for the Mariners. Littell, ranked the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, holds a 2-5 record with a 4.20 ERA over 14 starts. His 3.70 FIP indicates he's been a bit unlucky and could see improved performance. On the flip side, Castillo, ranked 49th, has a 6-8 record and a solid 3.63 ERA over 16 starts. Both pitchers project similarly in terms of innings pitched and earned runs, but Castillo's strikeout potential (6.2 projected strikeouts) gives him an edge.

Offensively, neither team excels across the board. The Rays are ranked 21st overall, with particularly weak power numbers, sitting 27th in team home runs. Their bright spot is their ability to steal bases, ranking 5th in MLB. The Mariners, on the other hand, have struggled more significantly, ranking 25th overall in offense and 28th in team batting average. However, they do show a bit more power, ranking 11th in team home runs.

In the bullpen, both teams are similarly mediocre, with the Rays ranked 20th and the Mariners 23rd. Given these similarities, the game could hinge on the starting pitching and any standout offensive performances.

Watch for Josh Lowe, who has been hot for the Rays over the last week, hitting .385 with 3 home runs and an impressive 1.236 OPS. For the Mariners, Ryan Bliss has been on a tear, batting .538 with a 1.523 OPS over his last five games.

Betting markets have the Mariners as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% chance of winning. The Rays, sitting at +110, have a 46% chance. Though the projections from THE BAT X suggest a close contest, Seattle's stronger season and the slight pitching edge with Castillo may give them the upper hand in this matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Julio Rodriguez as the 9th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Zack Littell will allow an average of 1.2 singles in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Because of Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Jose Siri will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 67 games (+17.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 51% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.23 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.74

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.