Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/24/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 24, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 24, 2024, at Tropicana Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting states of form. The Rays, with a 38-40 record, are having an average season, while the Mariners are enjoying a solid campaign at 45-35. This American League matchup will feature Taj Bradley on the mound for the Rays and Bryan Woo for the Mariners, both right-handed pitchers.

Taj Bradley, ranked as the 73rd-best starting pitcher by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has a respectable ERA of 4.06 over his 8 starts this year. His advanced metrics, such as a 3.37 xFIP, suggest he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results going forward. Bradley is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, striking out 6.5 batters, but also giving up 4.3 hits and 1.6 walks on average today. His high strikeout rate (28.8%) could be particularly effective against a Mariners offense that leads MLB in strikeouts.

On the other side, Bryan Woo has been impressive with a stellar 1.67 ERA over 7 starts. However, his 4.03 xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate so far. Woo is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.0 earned runs, 4.1 hits, and 1.3 walks, while striking out 4.9 batters. His low strikeout rate (18.4%) might benefit from facing a high-strikeout Rays lineup, which ranks 6th in strikeouts. Woo’s high-flyball tendency could also play to his advantage against a Rays offense that ranks 27th in home runs.

Offensively, both teams have their struggles. The Rays rank 21st in overall offensive performance, and their lack of power is evident with their 27th ranking in home runs. However, they do rank 6th in stolen bases. The Mariners fare slightly worse, ranking 25th in overall offense and 28th in batting average, though they have shown some pop with the 10th most home runs.

The bullpens could play a crucial role in this tight matchup. The Rays bullpen ranks 18th, while the Mariners are 22nd, suggesting neither team has a significant edge in relief pitching.

Given the even betting lines with both teams at -110, the projections suggest this will be a close game. The Rays might have a slight edge with Bradley's potential for improved performance and their superior bullpen. However, the Mariners' better overall season record and Woo's impressive ERA make this a difficult contest to call. With both teams having an implied team total of 3.75 runs, expect a low-scoring affair with the game total set at 7.5 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited in today's game, projecting a maximum of 79 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Taj Bradley in the 89th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 11th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (45.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+5.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.99 vs Tampa Bay Rays 3.78

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