Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 9/3/2025
The Seattle Mariners will face the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. The Rays have taken the first two games of this series and are on a hot streak that has them back in the AL Wild Card race. They will look for a win over a Mariners team that is currently occupying one of those AL Wild Card spots. Before first pitch from Tampa, continue reading to get my Mariners vs Rays prediction for tonight.
Our Mariners vs Rays Pick
- Our Pick: Rays moneyline
- Confidence: 4/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 3, 2025, 7:35 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: George Kirby (8-6, 3.94 ERA) vs Adrian Houser (7-4, 2.85 ERA)
- Stadium: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, FL
- Broadcast: FDSSUN and ROOT Sports NW
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
George Kirby brings decent control and a 3.94 ERA across 102.2 innings of work. He is a stable arm for the Mariners but has not been spectacular by any means. Adrian Houser comes into this start with a stronger ERA of 2.85 in 94.2 innings. Houser has been impressive since coming over from the Chicago White Sox.
Key Players
- Cal Raleigh (SEA): Clubbing 51 home runs has made him a central figure in Seattle’s offense.
- Junior Caminero (TB): Caminero has reached 40 home runs with a 146 wRC+ since mid-May. He’s a major power threat for Tampa Bay.
Recent team streaks
- The Rays have won five straight games heading into tonight.
- Seattle is holding the third AL Wild Card spot with a high probability of reaching the playoffs. But they have lost two straight games and four of their last five.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Junior Caminero | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| George Kirby | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Adrian Houser | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Moneyline: Mariners favored at –141, Rays at +118. Implied win chance: Mariners ~58%, Rays ~46-59% depending on source.
- Mariners are 50-41 as moneyline favorites this season, and 31-22 when favored –140 or shorter.
- Rays have won 25 of 61 games as underdogs, and 13 of 29 when at least +115.
- Mariners 4-6 ATS in last 10; in these games runs have gone over the total 6 of 10.
- ESPN’s analytic model is nearly even, Mariners 50.8%, Rays 49.2%.
Mariners vs Rays Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 5 – Mariners 4
Win Probability: Mariners 48%, Rays 52%
Final Thoughts
Seattle is struggling at the worst possible time as the stretch run begins in MLB. The Mariners are losing winnable games to opponents that are below them in the Wild Card standings and I expect that trend to continue in this contest. I’ll take the Rays to win this game on the moneyline and pull even closer to Seattle in the race for the final AL Wild Card position.
