Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants Pick – 4/4/2025

Seattle Mariners vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on April 4, 2025, they enter the game with a strong 5-1 record this season. The Giants are experiencing a solid start, while the Mariners struggle at 3-4. This matchup carries additional weight as it marks the first game in the series between these two teams.

Justin Verlander, who has a respectable ERA of 3.60 this season, is projected to take the mound again today. And while his 4.12 xERA suggests some luck in his performance, he remains a solid option against a Mariners lineup that is averaging under three runs per game, a stark indication of their offensive struggles. Verlander's low walk rate (4.6 BB%) positions him favorably against a Mariners offense that has been known to draw walks, potentially neutralizing one of their strengths.

On the other side, Seattle will counter with Luis Castillo, projected to pitch just 4.9 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs on average. Castillo's ERA and projections reveal a challenging matchup ahead, particularly against a Giants bullpen that ranks 1st overall in MLB, offering a significant advantage if the game remains close.

Despite their offensive woes, the Giants do boast a solid home run ranking (13th best) and a strong bullpen that could capitalize on the Mariners' weaknesses. Betting odds favor the Giants with a moneyline of -145, suggesting a greater chance of victory. Given the context and the Giants' current form, they appear well-positioned to secure the win in this interleague clash.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Luis Castillo in the 13th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, hitters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Tyler Fitzgerald has big-time HR ability (75th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (31.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Luis Castillo doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Fitzgerald.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 130 games (+8.70 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 4 games (+4.80 Units / 99% ROI)

• Date: April 4, 2025
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Justin Verlander - Giants

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