Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/18/2025

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face off against the Seattle Mariners on May 18, 2025, both teams come into this pivotal matchup with solid records of 27-17 and 25-19, respectively. Notably, the Padres' strong performance has been supported by a robust bullpen ranked as the 4th best in MLB, contrasting with the Mariners' average bullpen ranked 15th. In their last game, the Mariners enjoyed a significant victory, taking control against the Padres and looking to maintain that momentum.

The Padres will rely on Michael King, who has been impressive this season with a 4-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.32. While King ranks as the 24th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. His tendency to allow 4.3 hits per game could be problematic against a powerful Mariners lineup that has amassed 61 home runs this season, ranking 5th in the league.

On the other hand, Bryan Woo, projected to start for the Mariners, has also been stellar with a 4-1 record and a solid 2.84 ERA. Despite ranking 19th among MLB starters, Woo's numbers indicate he too could face challenges, particularly with a projected 5.5 hits allowed each game.

Offensively, the Padres rank 4th in team batting average but are only 23rd in home runs, meaning they’ll need to capitalize on scoring opportunities against Woo. Conversely, the Mariners boast the 6th best ranking in home runs, giving them an edge in power hitting, particularly in a game with a low total of 7.5 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Recording 19 outs per outing this year on average, Bryan Woo places him the 99th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jorge Polanco pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 6th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Michael King in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 19% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.45 Units / 42% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 3.91, San Diego Padres 3.89

• Date: May 18, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Michael King - Padres

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