Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Pick – 5/16/2025

On May 16, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Seattle Mariners at Petco Park in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Padres are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 27-15, placing them in contention for a playoff spot. They recently secured a convincing 5-1 victory on May 14, showcasing their competitive edge. Conversely, the Mariners hold a record of 23-19, which, while above average, reflects a team still seeking consistency.

Starting for the Padres is Stephen Kolek, who has been nothing short of impressive this season. Kolek boasts an unblemished 2-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 0.00, although his xFIP of 3.40 indicates he may be due for some regression. His last outing was particularly remarkable, as he pitched a complete game shutout on May 10, striking out 7 batters while allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks. Though he projects to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs today, the Padres' offense, which ranks 2nd in team batting average, should provide ample support.

On the mound for the Mariners is Logan Evans, who has struggled this season with a 6.60 ERA and a 1-1 record. Despite having a low strikeout rate, Evans could face difficulties against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in the league for the least strikeouts. His projections suggest he may allow an average of 2.6 earned runs and 5.2 hits, which could further tip the scales in favor of San Diego.

With the Padres’ potent offense and solid bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, they look poised to capitalize on Evans’ challenges. The current moneyline has the Padres favored at -150, suggesting that oddsmakers expect a strong performance. As the game total is set at 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in backing the Padres to continue their winning ways against a vulnerable Mariners squad.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 2nd-worst among every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Given that flyball batters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Stephen Kolek and his 49.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jason Heyward stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+7.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+6.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.51, San Diego Padres 4.55

• Date: May 16, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Evans - Mariners
  • Stephen Kolek - Padres

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.