Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 8/17/2024

• Date: August 17, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 17, 2024, tension is building in this Interleague matchup. The Pirates are having a below-average season with a record of 57-64, while the Mariners are hovering around .500 at 63-60. Pittsburgh sits in the midst of a challenging campaign, and both teams are vying to gain ground in their respective divisions, although the Pirates have already been eliminated from division contention.

In their most recent game, the Pirates were able to secure a victory over the Mariners, snapping a 10-game losing streak in the process. The Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, who boasts a strong record of 10-11 along with an impressive ERA of 3.40. In contrast, the Pirates will send Bailey Falter to the mound. With a disappointing Win/Loss record of 5-7 and an xFIP of 4.77, signaling potential trouble ahead, Falter has struggled in recent outings and is ranked as the 205th best starting pitcher in MLB.

Both teams have encountered difficulties with their offenses this season, with the Pirates ranking 27th and the Mariners at 28th in MLB. However, the Mariners do have some power, ranking 14th in home runs, which could play a pivotal role against a pitcher like Falter, who has been known to give up long balls.

As the game approaches, the Pirates are listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +135, giving them an implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Mariners hold a higher implied total of 4.66 runs. Given the challenges the Pirates face and the solid performance of Castillo on the mound, this matchup will be critical for both teams as they look to make a statement.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 5.3 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Cal Raleigh has strong power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bailey Falter has a pitch-to-contact profile (25th percentile K%) — great news for Raleigh.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 12.2% less often this year (35%) than he did last season (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 44 away games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+8.60 Units / 96% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.17 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.44

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