Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/3/2024

• Date: September 3, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • J.T. Ginn - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on September 3, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their fortunes in a season that has not gone as planned. The Mariners sit at .500 with a record of 69-69, while the Athletics are struggling significantly at 60-78. This matchup is crucial for both teams, but especially for the Mariners, who are trying to gain some ground in the tightly contested American League West.

In their last game, the Athletics defeated the Mariners, in a crushing blow that the Mariners will look to bounce back from today.

On the mound, the Athletics have J.T. Ginn projected to start. Ginn has had a rough year, with a 5.19 ERA, ranking him as the 150th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite his struggles, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 4.11 xFIP indicates he could perform better going forward. However, Ginn's projections for this game show that he is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, which is below average.

In contrast, the Mariners will send out Luis Castillo, who has been solid this season with a 3.65 ERA and a ranking of 46th among MLB starters. Castillo is expected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing just 2.3 earned runs with a strong strikeout rate of 6.7 batters per game. Given the Athletics' offensive struggles, ranked 20th overall, Castillo appears poised to take advantage of the situation.

With the Mariners favored in this matchup, they may have the edge they need to secure a victory against an Athletics team that has shown little consistency this season. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a low-scoring affair, but with Castillo on the mound, the Mariners may just find a way to break through.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

J.P. Crawford has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.5-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 88.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places J.T. Ginn in the 23rd percentile among all SPs in baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.0) may lead us to conclude that Lawrence Butler has had positive variance on his side this year with his 33.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brent Rooker ranks as the 20th-best hitter in MLB.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 58 games (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+18.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.71 vs Oakland Athletics 3.89

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