Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 9/5/2024

• Date: September 5, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners face off on September 5, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the American League West. The Athletics sit at 61-79, struggling through a tough season, while the Mariners hold a 70-70 record, hovering around .500. In their last matchup, the Mariners destroyed the Athletics by a score of 16-3, adding to Oakland's woes.

Joey Estes is projected to take the mound for the Athletics. Despite a mediocre ERA of 4.29, his advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 228th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, indicating he is among the weaker pitchers in the league. Estes has started 19 games this season, with a 6-6 record, but his projections suggest he will pitch nearly five innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs while striking out only 4.1 batters on average. This low strikeout rate could play into the hands of Seattle's high-strikeout offense, which ranks 1st in MLB.

Bryan Woo, on the other hand, is slated to start for the Mariners and has been much more effective this year. He boasts an impressive ERA of 2.30 and a solid 6-2 record over 17 starts. Although his xFIP indicates he might regress slightly, his projections suggest he will pitch a competitive five innings, allowing around 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, both teams are struggling, with the Athletics ranking 20th in MLB while the Mariners sit at 28th. However, the projections indicate the Mariners may score around 4.82 runs on average, while the Athletics are expected to tally just 4.19 runs. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could become a tightly contested affair, especially with the Athletics' strong bullpen, ranked 6th in MLB. This series continues to be crucial for both teams as they seek to build momentum in the waning weeks of the season.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's change-up usage has jumped by 5.5% from last year to this one (3.6% to 9.1%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Oakland Athletics infield defense profiles as the 3rd-best among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Tristan Gray has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Tristan Gray ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 60 games (+10.75 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 54 away games (+15.45 Units / 26% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 38 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.86 vs Oakland Athletics 4.02

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