Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/6/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Details

• Date: June 6, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In a matchup between two American League West teams, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Oakland Athletics on June 6, 2024, at Oakland Coliseum. The Athletics, with a record of 25-38, are having a terrible season, while the Mariners are performing well with a record of 35-28.

The Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher JP Sears, who has had a mediocre season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sears is ranked as the #191 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. On the other side, the Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bryan Woo, who has been performing exceptionally well. Woo is ranked as the #52 best starting pitcher in MLB.

Sears has started 12 games this year, boasting a win/loss record of 4-4. His ERA stands at 4.01, slightly above average. However, his 4.84 xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may regress in future performances. In comparison, Woo has started 5 games with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.30. Though his xFIP is higher than his ERA, indicating potential regression, Woo has displayed great performance overall.

Both teams have struggled offensively this season. The Athletics rank as the #24 best offense in MLB, while the Mariners rank slightly behind at #26. The Athletics have struggled in team batting average and home runs, ranking last in both categories. However, they have excelled in stolen bases, ranking as the #5 team in MLB. The Mariners, on the other hand, have a slightly better batting average but rank below average in home runs and stolen bases.

In terms of team bullpens, the Athletics hold the top spot in our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Mariners rank at #24. This suggests that the Athletics have the advantage in relief pitching.

Looking at the overall matchup, the Mariners have the upper hand. Their offense has been slightly better, and Bryan Woo has been performing exceptionally well. However, JP Sears, despite his lower ranking, could benefit from facing the high-strikeout Mariners offense.

The game total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game. The Athletics are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%. The Mariners, being the favorites, have a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup. Despite the Athletics' struggles this season, the Mariners cannot afford to underestimate them. With the starting pitching advantage and a slightly better offense, the Mariners will look to secure a victory on the road. However, the Athletics' strong bullpen and potential pitching advantage could make this a closely contested game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo was on point in his last start and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme groundball bats like Cal Raleigh are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like JP Sears.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

JP Sears is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Zack Gelof has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, J.D. Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.8% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• Brent Rooker has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 33% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.31 vs Oakland Athletics 3.62

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