Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/22/2024

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 22, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the New York Yankees will take on the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium on May 22, 2024. The Yankees, who hold a record of 33-17, are having a great season so far. On the other hand, the Mariners, with a record of 27-22, are having a good season as well.

The Yankees will be the home team for this game, and they have been performing exceptionally well in front of their home crowd. Nestor Cortes, a left-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Yankees. Despite being ranked as the #49 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Cortes has been performing well this season with a 2-4 Win/Loss record and an ERA of 3.56.

Opposing Cortes will be Bryce Miller, a right-handed pitcher for the Mariners. While Miller is considered a below-average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, he has a respectable ERA of 3.08 this season.

The Yankees boast the #2 best offense in MLB this season, despite ranking #29 in team batting average. Their power-hitting lineup, which ranks #8 in team home runs, is a force to be reckoned with. However, their stolen base ranking of #20 is considered average.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have a lower-ranked offense, coming in at #23 in MLB. They struggle in terms of team batting average (#24) but have an average ranking in team home runs (#13) and stolen bases (#18).

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league. According to our Power Rankings, the Yankees have the #22 best bullpen, while the Mariners have the #20 best bullpen.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% chance of winning. The Mariners, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

With a projected team total of 4.35 runs, the Yankees are expected to put up a strong offensive performance. The Mariners, on the other hand, have a lower projected team total of 3.65 runs.

In their last games, the Yankees' best hitter has been Aaron Judge, who has recorded 11 hits, 8 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .478 and an OPS of 1.743 over the past week. Meanwhile, Dylan Moore has been the Mariners' best hitter, recording 7 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a batting average of .412 and an OPS of 1.683.

With the Yankees having the higher projected win probability, it seems that they have the advantage in this matchup. However, anything can happen in baseball, making this game an exciting one to watch.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has gone to his four-seamer 14.1% less often this season (44.4%) than he did last season (58.5%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 9.7% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners makes them the #3 club in baseball since the start of last season by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alex Verdugo's quickness has dropped off this season. His 27.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.6 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Anthony Rizzo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 13 away games (+10.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.25 vs New York Yankees 5.27

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