Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds & Picks – 5/20/2024

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Marcus Stroman - Yankees

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are set to take on the Seattle Mariners in an American League matchup on May 20, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. As the home team, the Yankees will look to continue their great season with a current record of 33-15. On the other hand, the Mariners are having an above-average season with a record of 25-22.

The Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Stroman is considered the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 9 games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.33, which is great. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he may be due for some regression going forward.

Logan Gilbert is projected to start for the Mariners. He is a right-handed pitcher and is considered the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. Gilbert has started 9 games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.07, which is also great.

In terms of offense, the Yankees have the second-best offense in MLB this season, while the Mariners rank 21st. However, the Yankees have a low team batting average, ranking 29th, while the Mariners rank 24th. The Yankees have a good ranking in team home runs (8th), while the Mariners have an average ranking (13th). Both teams have average rankings in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are favored to win with a moneyline set at -135, implying a win probability of 55%. The Mariners have a moneyline of +115, implying a win probability of 45%.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Tallying 19.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Logan Gilbert falls in the 99th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

This season, there has been a decline in Luke Raley's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.82 ft/sec last year to 28.17 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Marcus Stroman has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 10% more often this season (55.4%) than he did last year (45.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Austin Wells has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 18.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a fair amount lower than his 35.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Anthony Rizzo pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.74 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 28% ROI)
• Luke Raley has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 50% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.16 vs New York Yankees 4.69

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