Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees Prediction – 7/8/2025

On Tuesday, July 8, the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees will open a three-game series from the Bronx. These teams have records that are separated by just one game. That makes this series very important for potential postseason seeding. Here, I break down what is expected to be a close game and make my Mariners vs Yankees prediction for Tuesday.

Our Mariners vs Yankees Pick

• Pick: Seattle Mariners moneyline
• Confidence: ★★★
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 8, 2025, 7:05 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Will Warren (NYY)
• Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• Broadcast: YES (NYY), ROOT Sports NW (SEA)

Key Storylines

Pitching Form

• Logan Gilbert has a 2-2 record and a 3.40 ERA this season. Gilbert has faced AL East teams twice this season. He has allowed two earned runs in each of those games and would love a similar outing in this game.
• Will Warren is 5-4 with a 5.02 ERA. He got absolutely rocked in his last start. Warren gave up eight earned runs in four innings against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 2. The Yankees need more out of Warren to win this game against another team with a winning record.

Bullpen Usage

Seattle’s bullpen has been reliable. They rank seventh in MLB in bullpen ERA this year. The Yankees bullpen struggled in their series loss to the Mets over the weekend. They are 18th in bullpen ERA for the season.

Recent Team Streaks

• The Mariners have won three straight games. They outscored the Pittsburgh Pirates 8-0 in that three-game sweep.
• The Yankees won the final game of their three-game Subway Series against the Mets. But they are in a funk, going just 3-7 in their last 10 games.

Best Player Props

Betting Trends & H2H

• The Yankees lead the season series 2-1 over the Mariners after taking two out of three in Seattle in May.
• Seattle has gone over the total in 54.7% of their games. That ranks fifth in MLB.
• Both of these teams are in the bottom five in runline win percentage this baseball season.
• Seattle is 23-21 on the road this year. The Yankees are 26-17 at home.

Mariners vs Yankees Model Projection

Score Projection: Seattle 4 – New York 3

Win Probability: Seattle 52%, New York 48%

Final Thoughts

New York is at home in this game. But I don’t think that’s enough to justify betting on them. The Yankees are struggling lately. Will Warren is not who you want to see on the mound when you’re struggling. I expect Warren and the Yankees’ struggles to continue and for Seattle to pick up a road win as a slight underdog.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.