Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets Prediction – 8/15/2025
The Seattle Mariners will visit the New York Mets on Friday night at Citi Field. Both of these teams are in second place in their respective divisions and are holding onto Wild Card spots in their respective leagues. But only one of these Wild Card contenders will come away with a win on Friday. To find out who I think that is going to be, keep reading to get my Mariners vs Mets prediction.
Our Mariners vs Mets Pick
- Pick: Seattle Mariners Moneyline
- Confidence: 2/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets
- Date & Time: Friday, August 15, 2025, 7:10 p m ET
- Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo (8-6, 3.19 ERA) vs Sean Manaea (1-1, 4.33 ERA)
- Stadium: Citi Field, Queens, NY
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Key Storylines
The Mariners enter the game with an 8-2 record over their last 10 contests. Their offense has been productive and is fueled by the power of Cal Raleigh. Raleigh’s 45 home runs are the most in baseball this season and he will look to make an impact in this game as well. The Mets have struggled recently. They are just 2-8 in their past 10 games. They have been solid at Citi Field this season. But their recent performance raises concerns for me.
Pitching Matchup
Luis Castillo has a solid 3.19 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 138.1 innings of work. He’s also performed well historically against the Mets. Castillo is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in five starts against them. New York’s Sean Manaea has had limited usage with just 27 innings pitched this season. He has a higher ERA of 4.33. The Mets bullpen may be tested in a close game here.
Recent team streaks
- The Mariners have lost two games in a row after piling up eight straight wins before that.
- New York has lost two straight games and four of their last five going into this series opener.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Expectation |
|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | Over 0.5 home runs |
| Juan Soto (NYM) | Over 1.5 total bases |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | Over 5.5 strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- This is the first game in the season series between these two teams this year.
- These teams will play three games against each other this weekend. They will conclude their season series on Sunday Night Baseball over the weekend.
- New York is 39-23 at home for the year.
- Seattle is 30-30 on the road.
Mariners vs Mets Model Projection
Score Projection: Mariners 5 – Mets 4
Win Probability: Mariners 50%, Mets 50%
Final Thoughts
The Mets have been very good at home so far this season. But they have been playing poorly of late and I expect that to continue here against a surging Mariners team. Seattle has the starting pitching advantage with Luis Castillo on the mound and that should help them to secure an important win in this matchup between playoff contenders.
