Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 6/26/2025

On June 26, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Seattle Mariners at Target Field in what promises to be an engaging matchup. The Twins, currently sitting at 38-42, are having a below-average season, while the Mariners boast a record of 41-38, putting them above average. In their previous meeting, the Twins edged out the Mariners, adding pressure on Seattle to bounce back.

The Twins will send Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 2-4 record and a 5.06 ERA. Power Rankings indicate he ranks 171st among MLB pitchers, suggesting he has underperformed. His projections for this game show he’s likely to pitch around 4.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which isn’t ideal for a team looking to turn its season around.

In contrast, Emerson Hancock of the Mariners, despite being one of the worst pitchers in the league this year, presents an intriguing matchup. His 5.43 ERA and 3-3 record highlight his difficulties, but projections indicate he could outperform his numbers, with a 4.36 xFIP suggesting he’s been unlucky. He’s expected to pitch approximately 5.0 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs.

Offensively, the Twins rank 16th overall and 21st in batting average, struggling to find consistency. Meanwhile, the Mariners have the 7th best offense in MLB, excelling in power with the 6th most home runs. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive game. With the Twins' bullpen ranked 10th and the Mariners' at 13th, the late innings could prove crucial. Despite the odds favoring Minnesota slightly, Seattle's recent form and offensive prowess may give them the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Among all starting pitchers, Emerson Hancock's fastball spin rate of 2397 rpm grades out in the 76th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luke Raley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mitch Garver, Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Simeon Woods Richardson is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen profiles as the 10th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 73 games (+5.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Brooks Lee has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 74% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.93, Minnesota Twins 4.96

• Date: June 26, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Emerson Hancock - Mariners
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.