Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 6/25/2025

On June 25, 2025, the Minnesota Twins host the Seattle Mariners in what promises to be an exciting matchup at Target Field. Both teams find themselves in contrasting positions this season, with the Twins holding a record of 37-42 and the Mariners at 41-37. While the Mariners are enjoying an above-average season, the Twins are struggling to find their footing.

In their last outing, the Mariners secured a narrow victory over the Twins, handing Minnesota its fifth straight loss. With Joe Ryan projected to take the mound for Minnesota, he brings a solid reputation as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Ryan’s projections show he should pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.7 batters. However, he has struggled with hits, projected to give up 4.7 on average, and his 1.3 walks per game could prove costly.

George Kirby will counter for Seattle, sitting at 30th in the Power Rankings but still proving his worth with a projection of 5.8 innings and approximately 2.6 earned runs allowed. Both pitchers are right-handed and carry a great deal of potential, but Kirby's projections suggest he may struggle with high hits and walks as well.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest. Minnesota’s moneyline sits at -130, hinting at a slight edge, but the Mariners will look to capitalize on their recent momentum.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Considering that groundball hitters have a big advantage over flyball pitchers, George Kirby and his 42.9% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today's outing matching up with 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Typically, batters like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Joe Ryan.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (63.4 compared to 54.4% last year) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+6.75 Units / 35% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.21, Minnesota Twins 4.05

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

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