Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 6/23/2025

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on June 23, 2025, both teams are looking for momentum in a tightly contested matchup. The Twins currently sit at 37-40, struggling to make headway this season, while the Mariners, with a record of 39-37, are hovering around .500. Yesterday, the Mariners showcased their offensive firepower, dominating the Chicago Cubs in a decisive victory, which they will look to build on here.

The pitching matchup features Minnesota’s Bailey Ober, who is projected to start. This season, Ober has put together a 4-4 record with a 4.54 ERA, ranking him 103rd among MLB starters, marking him as an average pitcher. He has shown decent control with a low walk rate of 6.0%, which may neutralize Seattle's patient lineup that ranks 6th in the league for walks. However, Ober's tendency to allow 5.3 hits per game could be a concern against a Mariners offense that ranks 10th overall.

On the other side, Seattle’s Bryan Woo comes into this game with a solid 6-4 record and an impressive 3.12 ERA, making him the 22nd best pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Woo may be due for some regression, given his xFIP of 3.65, but his ability to limit damage—allowing only 2.6 earned runs on average—will be crucial for the Mariners.

Offensively, the Twins rank 16th in MLB, while the Mariners boast a much stronger 10th place ranking. With the Twins' recent struggles, especially in batting average (21st), they will need to rely on their best hitters, who have shown flashes of brilliance in recent games. Despite this, betting markets have set Minnesota’s moneyline at +105, hinting at potential value for those backing the underdog in what promises to be a competitive clash.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo's 94.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 79th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Typically, bats like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Seattle Mariners bats as a unit place 10th- in MLB for power this year when using their 9.1% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in the league today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Carlos Correa is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's matchup, Kody Clemens is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games (+7.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.15 Units / 34% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.03, Minnesota Twins 4.27

• Date: June 23, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.