Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/24/2025

On June 24, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Seattle Mariners at Target Field in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Coming off a solid performance, the Mariners will look to capitalize on their recent success after winning the previous game in the series. Currently, the Twins hold a record of 37-41, indicating a below-average season, while the Mariners sit at 40-37, showcasing their above-average form.

Chris Paddack is scheduled to take the mound for the Twins, bringing a Win/Loss record of 3-6 and an ERA of 4.48 this season. Though his ERA may appear average, a closer look reveals he has struggled with a high flyball rate (38 FB%) and faces a powerful Mariners offense, which ranks 6th in the league with 105 home runs. Paddack's projections suggest he could allow 2.8 earned runs and 5.5 hits today, which are concerning figures against a lineup that has been efficient at turning pitches into long balls.

In contrast, Mariners' ace Luis Castillo, with a 4-5 record and a stellar 3.37 ERA, presents a more favorable option for Seattle. While the projections suggest Castillo may allow a similar number of runs, he has consistently demonstrated the ability to navigate through lineups effectively. With the Mariners' offense ranking 8th overall, they are primed for a strong performance.

Despite the even moneyline at -110 for both teams, the Mariners’ robust offensive statistics and Castillo's reliability on the mound could give them the edge in this matchup, making them a compelling pick for bettors.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Luis Castillo's high usage rate of his fastball (67.1% this year) is likely dampening his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Luke Raley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Out of all starters, Chris Paddack's fastball spin rate of 2226 rpm is in the 24th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Trevor Larnach is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kody Clemens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.35 Units / 54% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.98, Minnesota Twins 4.46

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

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