Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/22/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 22, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Gilbert - Mariners
  • Shaun Anderson - Marlins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners are set to face off on June 22, 2024, at LoanDepot Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Marlins are mired in a rough season with a 26-49 record, while the Mariners are faring much better at 44-34. Despite the Marlins' struggles, they managed to score an upset win in the series opener, edging out the Mariners 3-2.

The Marlins are projected to start right-hander Shaun Anderson, who has had a tough season with a 10.13 ERA over four appearances. However, his underlying metrics suggest some bad luck, as his 3.54 xFIP indicates he might be due for better results. Anderson faces a Mariners lineup that ranks 23rd in MLB, although they do boast the 9th-most home runs, which could pose a challenge given Anderson’s vulnerabilities.

On the mound for the Mariners will be Logan Gilbert, a right-handed pitcher who has been solid this season with a 2.93 ERA over 15 starts. Gilbert's advanced metrics suggest he’s been a bit fortunate, with a 3.44 SIERA implying some regression may be in store. He will be up against a Marlins offense ranked 29th overall, struggling particularly with power, ranking 29th in home runs.

Both teams' bullpens have been underwhelming, with the Marlins' pen ranked 22nd and the Mariners’ ranked 26th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to some late-game drama if starters falter early.

Jazz Chisholm remains a bright spot for the Marlins, hitting .262 with 10 home runs and 13 stolen bases this season. He’s also been hot lately, batting .400 over his last five games. For the Mariners, Julio Rodriguez has been a consistent performer with a .264 batting average and 16 stolen bases. However, Ryan Bliss has been on fire, posting a .667 average and a 1.881 OPS over the last week.

Despite the Marlins’ recent win and Anderson's potential for better results, the Mariners are favored with a -165 moneyline. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, projects the Mariners with a 56% chance of winning, but also notes that the Marlins have a 4% higher win probability than the betting market suggests, making them a potentially intriguing underdog bet.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Logan Gilbert's 1981-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 1st percentile among all SPs.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Dominic Canzone has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .215 BA is quite a bit lower than his .265 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average hurler, Shaun Anderson has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -9.1 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

In the last 14 days, Nick Gordon's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

In today's matchup, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38% rate (94th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+9.20 Units / 18% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.23 vs Miami Marlins 4.19

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