Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Preview – 6/23/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

As the Miami Marlins and Seattle Mariners gear up for their third game in this interleague series, there are contrasting narratives at play. Scheduled for June 23, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, this matchup features two teams on divergent paths this season. The Marlins, with a dismal 26-50 record, are struggling mightily, while the Mariners are enjoying a solid campaign at 45-34.

Braxton Garrett, a left-handed pitcher, is set to start for the Marlins. Garrett ranks as the 93rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an average hurler in a pool of approximately 350 pitchers. He faces a Mariners offense that, despite a poor .700 team batting average ranking 29th, has shown power with the 9th most home runs in the league. On the other side, Bryan Woo, a right-hander, will take the mound for Seattle. Woo's task will be to navigate a Marlins lineup that ranks poorly across the board: 22nd in batting average, 29th in home runs, and 25th in stolen bases.

Jazz Chisholm has been a rare bright spot for the Marlins, batting .412 with a 1.006 OPS over the last week. His recent form could be crucial for Miami, particularly given their offensive struggles. For the Mariners, Ryan Bliss has been on fire, hitting .700 with a 1.927 OPS and contributing 4 RBIs in the past week. His hot streak provides a significant boost to Seattle's lineup.

Despite the Marlins being big underdogs with a moneyline of +145 and an implied win probability of 39%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this game as closer than the betting market suggests. The projections give Miami a 48% chance to win, indicating potential value in betting on the Marlins. With a projected scoring of 4.25 runs for Miami and 4.70 for Seattle, this game could be tighter than expected.

As the Mariners look to continue their strong season, the Marlins will aim to capitalize on any edge they can find, hoping Garrett can hold off a power-hitting Seattle lineup and that their offense can find some spark. This game promises to be an intriguing battle of contrasting strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Among every team playing today, the weakest infield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.7 vs Miami Marlins 4.25

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