Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Walker Buehler - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Seattle Mariners on August 20, 2024, brings high stakes with both teams looking to cement their positions. The Dodgers currently stand at 73-52, showcasing a strong season, while the Mariners, at 64-61, aim to improve from an average performance. Both teams are enduring a competitive stretch, and this game marks the second in their interleague series.

In their most recent outing, the Dodgers played solid baseball to shut down the Mariners, while the Mariners have struggled offensively, ranking 27th in MLB in that department. The Dodgers boast the 5th best offense in the league, underscored by their 3rd ranking in home runs with 139 dingers this season. Gavin Lux has been their standout hitter lately, producing impressive numbers over the past week with a .391 batting average and 5 RBIs in 6 games.

On the mound, the Dodgers will rely on Walker Buehler, who has had a challenging season with a 5.58 ERA and a 1-4 win-loss record. His low strikeout rate might play into his favor against a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts. Conversely, Bryce Miller is set to pitch for Seattle; his 3.29 ERA reflects his strong performance this year, and he has been effective at limiting walks.

Despite Buehler’s struggles, the projections hint at a possible bounce back, suggesting he could outperform his expected numbers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ power hitters could pose a major threat to Miller, especially given his tendency to allow fly balls. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, fans can expect an intriguing showdown, as the Dodgers hold the edge in both overall performance and depth in their lineup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller has recorded 17.5 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Dylan Moore has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 9.3% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #4 club in the game this year by this stat.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Considering the 0.55 discrepancy between Walker Buehler's 7.59 K/9 and his 7.04 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to negatively regress in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Miguel Rojas has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .321 rate is quite a bit higher than his .283 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+11.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.50 Units / 29% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.83 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.55

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