Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On August 19, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Seattle Mariners at Dodger Stadium in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Dodgers, currently holding a solid record of 73-52, are having a notable season. In contrast, the Mariners sit at 64-61, marking an average year for them as they struggle to break through in a competitive landscape.

Coming off recent games, the Dodgers last played on August 18, beating the St. Louis Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Mariners got a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Gavin Stone for the Dodgers and Bryan Woo for the Mariners. Stone, despite being a low-strikeout pitcher with an 18.7% strikeout rate, faces a Mariners lineup that leads MLB in strikeouts. This could present an opportunity for Stone to shine despite his #144 ranking among starting pitchers.

Conversely, Bryan Woo comes into the game with an impressive record of 5-1 and an exceptional ERA of 2.06. However, the projections suggest that he might not sustain this level of performance, indicated by his higher xFIP of 3.79.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank as the 5th best in MLB, showcasing significant talent with a powerful lineup that has amassed the 3rd most home runs. In contrast, the Mariners struggle, ranking 28th in overall offense and dead last in batting average. This disparity in offensive production may tip the scales in favor of the Dodgers, who are heavily favored with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.56 runs for this matchup.

As the teams prepare to clash, this game holds major implications, positioning the Dodgers as frontrunners in today's contest against a Mariners squad that needs a spark to turn their season around.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo has used his change-up 5.5% more often this season (9.1%) than he did last year (3.6%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, notching a .304 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .055 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 8th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Gavin Stone turned in a great performance in his last GS and conceded 1 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+8.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.63 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.96

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