Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels host the Seattle Mariners on August 31, 2024, both teams are navigating challenging seasons with little hope for postseason play. The Angels currently sit at 55-79, having dropped their last game against the Mariners, while Seattle holds a slightly better 68-66 record. With both teams struggling, this matchup becomes critical for any lingering aspirations.

Tyler Anderson, projected to start for the Angels, has had a mixed season. Though his 3.41 ERA is impressive, his 4.82 xFIP indicates that he may have been riding a wave of good fortune. Anderson's low strikeout rate could be a double-edged sword against a Mariners team that has struggled with strikeouts, ranking 1st in MLB. He has allowed an alarming average of 4.8 hits and 2.2 walks per game, which could spell trouble against the Mariners' lineup.

On the flip side, Bryan Woo has been a standout for Seattle, boasting a remarkable 2.05 ERA and a solid 6-2 record this year. However, his xFIP of 3.82 suggests that his success might not be sustainable. Woo's ability to control the game will be pivotal, especially as he faces an Angels offense that ranks 25th in MLB.

As for the hitting, Taylor Ward has stepped up for the Angels, leading the team over the past week with a .294 batting average and a .997 OPS. Conversely, Randy Arozarena has shined for Seattle, hitting .389 with two home runs in his last week.

The current odds favor the Mariners, but with both teams underperforming, this game could easily swing in favor of either side. The projections suggest an intriguing battle with a game total set at 8.0 runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryan Woo has used his change-up 5.6% more often this season (9.2%) than he did last year (3.6%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Cal Raleigh has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph dropping to 83.2-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson's 88.8-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 1st percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brandon Drury has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .153 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .214 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+7.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 away games (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+8.30 Units / 59% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.15 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.03

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