Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/30/2024

• Date: August 30, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Samuel Aldegheri - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On August 30, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will host the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium in a crucial American League West matchup. With the Angels sitting at 55-79, they are having a dismal season, while the Mariners are slightly better at 68-66. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, but the Angels are coming off a rough stretch, though they did beat the Detroit Tigers in their last outing. Seattle, on the other hand, is in a better position but still grappling with inconsistency.

The pitching matchup features Samuel Aldegheri for the Angels and George Kirby for the Mariners. Aldegheri is an interesting story today as he is from Verona, Italy and is making his MLB debut in this contest. Meanwhile, Kirby has been a bright spot for Seattle, ranking 25th among MLB starters with a solid 3.48 ERA and a 9-10 record. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which bodes well for the Mariners.

Offensively, the Angels rank 25th overall in MLB, struggling to find consistency at the plate. Despite ranking 7th in stolen bases, their batting average is a dismal 22nd. In contrast, the Mariners hold a 28th place rank in overall offense and are last in batting average, which highlights their own struggles. However, they boast a respectable 14th place in home runs.

With the Mariners favored in this matchup and the Angels' recent offensive woes, the projections suggest a tough road for Los Angeles. However, with a talented pitcher like Kirby on the mound, Seattle will need to capitalize on their opportunities to secure a much-needed victory.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's 95.3-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 86th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Justin Turner has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Samuel Aldegheri to throw 85 pitches in this game (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Nolan Schanuel's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.2-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 76-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 64 games (+7.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 away games (+11.10 Units / 31% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Walks Over in 6 of his last 9 away games (+7.30 Units / 81% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.26 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.96

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.