Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick & Preview – 7/12/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: July 12, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Angels host the Seattle Mariners on July 12, 2024, in the second game of their series at Angel Stadium. The Angels are struggling this season with a 38-55 record, while the Mariners are faring better with a 52-43 mark. This American League West matchup features two pitchers trending in opposite directions: Tyler Anderson for the Angels and Bryan Woo for the Mariners.

The Angels have had a tough season and their offense ranks 21st in MLB. They have shown some power, ranking 14th in home runs, and good speed with the 8th most stolen bases. However, their overall offensive performance leaves much to be desired. On the mound, Anderson has been a mixed bag. Despite an 8-8 record and an excellent 2.81 ERA, his peripherals suggest regression is likely. His 5.05 xFIP indicates he has been fortunate and could struggle moving forward. Anderson is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, 5.3 hits, and 2.1 walks, with 5.0 strikeouts.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have had an above-average season, buoyed by a strong pitching staff. Bryan Woo stands out with a stellar 1.77 ERA, although his 4.00 xFIP suggests some luck has been involved. Woo is projected to pitch 3.7 innings, allowing 1.6 earned runs, 3.4 hits, and 0.9 walks, with 3.5 strikeouts. Seattle's offense, however, has been a weak point, ranking 28th overall and 29th in batting average. They do have some power, ranking 11th in home runs, and are average in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpens, both teams rank poorly, with the Angels at 28th and the Mariners at 26th in the power rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair if the game is close late.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Mariners are favored with a 55% win probability, slightly higher than their implied win probability of 59%. The Angels have a projected win probability of 45%, slightly higher than their implied probability of 41%. Given these projections, the Mariners hold a slight edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bryan Woo to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 60 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

J.P. Crawford has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Los Angeles Angels has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed batters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Brandon Drury has suffered from bad luck this year. His .219 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .298.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

In today's game, Kevin Pillar is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.1% rate (91st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+9.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.75 Units / 35% ROI)
• Nolan Schanuel has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 26% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 5.05 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.25

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