The Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals will meet in a huge American League matchup on Wednesday night. The Mariners enter this game as the hottest team in baseball and on top of their division. Kansas City is entering a position where they can’t afford to lose many more games. Who will win out on Wednesday? Continue reading to get my Mariners vs Royals prediction to find out.
Our Mariners vs Royals Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Teams: Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 17, 2025, 7:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Bryce Miller vs Cole Ragans
- Stadium: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- Broadcast: ROOT Sports Northwest, FanDuel Sports Kansas City
Key Storylines
- The Mariners have won 10 straight games and are handling the pressure of the playoff race in spectacular fashion. Seattle is still just a half-game ahead of the Astros in the AL West standings and will continue playing with a sense of urgency.
- The Royals are now seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot. They are running out of time to make up that deficit and will look to make something happen starting with this contest against Seattle.
- Seattle scored 12 runs in a win over the Royals to open this series last night. Cal Raleigh hit two more home runs in that game and is now up to 56 on the season.
Pitching outlook
- Bryce Miller, SEA: Recent form points upward. Over his last three outings, he’s worked 17 innings with eight earned runs allowed and 17 strikeouts, including 11 punchouts against the Angels. His four-seam velocity at the top of the zone can neutralize free-swingers, but his mistakes are elevated and often leave the yard.
- Cole Ragans, KC: Ragans is making his return to the mound for the Royals after missing three months of action due to injury. He had a 5.18 ERA before landing on the IL and he will try to turn his season around over these last couple of weeks.
Recent team streaks
- Seattle has won 10 games in a row and is peaking at the perfect time of the season to do so.
- Kansas City has lost four of its last five games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh, SEA | Home Run | Over 0.5 |
| Julio Rodríguez, SEA | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr., KC | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
| Bryce Miller, SEA | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Seattle is 3-2 against the Royals so far this season.
- The Mariners are 35-41 on the road after Tuesday’s victory.
- Kansas City is 40-36 at home in 2025.
Mariners vs Royals Model Projection
Score Projection: Mariners 5 – Royals 4
Win Probability: Mariners 56%, Royals 44%
Final Thoughts
I expect the Mariners to get an 11th win in a row by defeating the Royals tonight. But I think the over is a better bet for this game. Both starting pitchers have ERAs over 5.00. Miller has been giving up runs in recent starts, even if he’s been slightly better of late. And Ragans could struggle in his return to action. Give me the over in Kansas City tonight.
