Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction & Picks 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on September 25, 2024, the stage is set for a crucial American League West matchup at Minute Maid Park. With only a few games left in the regular season, the Astros (86-72) are having an above-average season and are confirmed as AL West champions, while the Mariners (81-77) sit at a more average standing.

On the mound, the Astros will rely on left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, ranked as the 63rd starting pitcher in Power Rankings. Kikuchi has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a 4.19 ERA but a more promising 3.23 xFIP, suggesting he might outperform recent stats. Notably, he's facing a Seattle offense that leads the league in strikeouts, allowing his high strikeout rate of 27.8% to potentially exploit this weakness.

Opposing him is the Mariners' George Kirby, an impressive 20th in Power Rankings with a 3.60 ERA this season. His low walk rate could be his ace against the Astros' discipline at the plate, but he’ll also need to navigate Houston's 9th-ranked offense, particularly their great team batting average, to keep the Mariners competitive.

While the Astros boast a strong bullpen, ranked 5th in the league, they’re facing a Mariners squad with a less impressive 23rd-ranked bullpen. This disparity might give Houston an edge in the later innings.

Recent performances from key hitters add to the intrigue. Houston's Kyle Tucker is in fine form, boasting a 0.409 batting average over the past week, while Seattle's Julio Rodriguez has been a powerhouse, with 11 RBIs and 3 home runs during the same span.

Expect a tight contest, with the Mariners having a slight edge according to betting odds and projections, but the Astros have the offensive and bullpen firepower to turn the tables.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby's four-seamer percentage has decreased by 5.2% from last season to this one (39.4% to 34.2%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all SPs, Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity of 94.9 mph grades out in the 81st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jason Heyward will probably have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Jon Singleton is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 138 games (+16.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+9.05 Units / 19% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.67 vs Houston Astros 4.25

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