Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/24/2025

As the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners meet for the third game of their series on May 24, 2025, both teams are in the thick of a competitive American League West. The Astros sit at 26-25, while the Mariners, boasting a record of 29-21, are enjoying a strong season.

On the mound, Framber Valdez will take the hill for the Astros, bringing his left-handed arm to face off against the Mariners' Bryan Woo, a right-handed pitcher. Valdez's 3-4 record this year and solid 3.57 ERA speak to his capability, but advanced metrics suggest he could be in for some turbulence ahead, with an xERA of 4.10 indicating some underlying struggles. He projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters. However, he also projects to allow 2.0 walks and 5.2 hits, which could be a concern against a lineup that can hit for power.

Woo, on the other hand, has been impressive with a 5-1 record and a stellar 2.65 ERA. His projections are equally encouraging, expected to pitch 6.2 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs. Despite a higher xFIP of 3.45, Woo’s recent form indicates he might still be on the rise.

The Astros' offense ranks 15th overall, but they are particularly struggling with just 20th in home runs and a mere 28th in stolen bases. This contrasts with the Mariners, who sit 11th in overall offensive ranking and are 6th in homers.

With the Astros currently favored at -120, betting markets suggest a close contest. With both teams boasting quality starting pitchers, it will be intriguing to see if Houston can build on their recent momentum or if Seattle's powerful offense will make its mark.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Houston's 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in Major League Baseball: #30 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+8.30 Units / 18% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.14, Houston Astros 3.32

• Date: May 24, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.